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Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:30

Nakhon Pathom

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.0%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 38.2% 2.62 +22.6%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 28.8% 42.0% 2.38 -18.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.1% 2.08 +11.9%

Over 3.5 34.0% 28.7% 3.48 +18.3%

BTTS 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Home O1.5 48.3% 37.9% 2.64 +27.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 41.7% 2.40 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nakhon Pathom1.6

Nakhon Ratchasima FC1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NAKHON PATHOM · PPG 1.17

NAKHON RATCHASIMA FC · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nakhon Pathom (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +22.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nakhon Pathom face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thailand - Thai League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nakhon Pathom a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29%, so Nakhon Pathom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nakhon Pathom and 1.2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +54.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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