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Chainat vs Phrae United Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Chainat

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Phrae United

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.7%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 51.3% 1.95 -7.8%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.1%

BTTS 55.9% 57.1% 1.75 -2.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 51.0% 1.96 -5.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.7% 2.65 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chainat1.6

Phrae United1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAINAT · PPG 1.54

PHRAE UNITED · PPG 1.29

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chainat (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Phrae United (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chainat face Phrae United in Thailand - Thai League 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chainat a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Phrae United 28%, so Chainat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chainat and 1.1 for Phrae United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chainat are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.29 for Phrae United.

Chainat vs Phrae United Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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