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Chiangmai United vs Esan Pattaya Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Chiangmai United

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Esan Pattaya

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.7%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 38.2% 2.62 +24.4%

Draw 24.6% 34.5% 2.90 -17.2%

Away win 27.9% 41.7% 2.40 -19.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.0% 2.78 -11.9%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 48.1% 43.5% 2.30 +10.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 46.5% 2.15 -28.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chiangmai United1.6

Esan Pattaya1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIANGMAI UNITED · PPG 1.60

ESAN PATTAYA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chiangmai United (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +24.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.2%

Esan Pattaya (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chiangmai United face Esan Pattaya in Thailand - Thai League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chiangmai United a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Esan Pattaya 28%, so Chiangmai United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chiangmai United and 1.1 for Esan Pattaya (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chiangmai United are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.14 for Esan Pattaya. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.5%.

Chiangmai United vs Esan Pattaya Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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