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Al Urooba vs Al Jazira Al Hamra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Al Urooba

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

UPCOMING

Al Jazira Al Hamra

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.3%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.7%1-111.1%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Draw 24.3% 25.6% 3.90 -3.1%

Away win 22.7% 18.2% 5.50 +14.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.3% 2.83 -10.6%

BTTS 52.9% 53.5% 1.87 -1.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 64.9% 1.54 -23.2%

Away O1.5 32.3% 22.7% 4.40 +42.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Urooba1.8

Al Jazira Al Hamra1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL UROOBA · PPG 1.80

AL JAZIRA AL HAMRA · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Urooba (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.1%

Al Jazira Al Hamra (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Urooba face Al Jazira Al Hamra in United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Urooba a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Al Jazira Al Hamra 23%, so Al Urooba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Urooba and 1.0 for Al Jazira Al Hamra (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Urooba are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.94 for Al Jazira Al Hamra. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +58.8%.

Al Urooba vs Al Jazira Al Hamra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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