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Al Thaid vs Dubai City Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:05

Al Thaid

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dubai City

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.5%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.3%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 69.4% 1.44 -26.4%

Draw 26.2% 26.7% 3.75 -1.1%

Away win 22.8% 16.7% 6.00 +22.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 30.0% 39.1% 2.56 -23.2%

BTTS 52.4% 57.1% 1.75 -8.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 65.4% 1.53 -25.2%

Away O1.5 29.6% 25.3% 3.96 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Thaid1.7

Dubai City1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL THAID · PPG 1.59

DUBAI CITY · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Thaid (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -26.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.1%

Dubai City (A) 22.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Thaid face Dubai City in United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Thaid a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Dubai City 23%, so Al Thaid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Thaid and 1.0 for Dubai City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Thaid are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.94 for Dubai City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 5-1.

Al Thaid vs Dubai City Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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