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Al Bataeh vs Al Arabi Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Al Bataeh

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Al Arabi

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.1%0-25.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.0%1-111.6%1-28.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.3%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.7%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 43.5% 2.30 -16.7%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 39.4% 37.0% 2.70 +6.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 32.3% 40.0% 2.50 -19.3%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Bataeh1.4

Al Arabi1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BATAEH · PPG 1.75

AL ARABI · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Bataeh (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -16.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Al Arabi (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Bataeh face Al Arabi in United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Bataeh a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Al Arabi 39%, so Al Arabi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Bataeh and 1.5 for Al Arabi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Bataeh are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.86 for Al Arabi. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Al Bataeh vs Al Arabi Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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