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Al Arabi vs Al Fujairah SC Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:10

Al Arabi

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Fujairah SC

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.6%0-24.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.3%1-110.8%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 46.5% 2.15 -15.3%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 36.0% 35.7% 2.80 +0.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 37.0% 2.70 -0.9%

BTTS 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 49.5% 2.02 -1.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.2% 2.49 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.1%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi1.6

Al Fujairah SC1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI · PPG 1.73

AL FUJAIRAH SC · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -15.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Al Fujairah SC (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi face Al Fujairah SC in United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Al Fujairah SC 36%, so Al Arabi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Arabi and 1.5 for Al Fujairah SC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.08 for Al Fujairah SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Al Arabi vs Al Fujairah SC Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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