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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Varketili Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

UPCOMING

Varketili

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-115.9%0-213.8%0-38.0%0-4+5.2%1 1-06.0%1-110.4%1-29.0%1-35.2%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.0%2-13.4%2-23.0%2-31.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 23.1% 4.33 -24.7%

Draw 24.8% 25.0% 4.00 -0.5%

Away win 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 60.6% 1.65 -16.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.1%

BTTS 48.3% 57.5% 1.74 -16.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.3%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.9%

#2 0–2 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotivi Tbilisi0.7

Varketili1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIVI TBILISI · PPG 1.56

VARKETILI · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.09 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (H) 13.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -24.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.5%

Varketili (A) 61.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotivi Tbilisi face Varketili in Georgia - Liga 3 on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotivi Tbilisi a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Varketili 62%, so Varketili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.7 for Varketili (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotivi Tbilisi are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.33 for Varketili.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Varketili Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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