Today / Georgia - Liga 3 / Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 13:30

Saburtalo II

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-15.7%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.4%1-19.2%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-17.5%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.9%3-14.0%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-12.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 14.4% 16.7% 6.00 -8.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 14.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 64% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.4%

#2 2–0 16.5%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saburtalo II1.6

Lokomotivi Tbilisi0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SABURTALO II · PPG 2.25

LOKOMOTIVI TBILISI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Saburtalo II (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -7.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (A) 14.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saburtalo II face Lokomotivi Tbilisi in Georgia - Liga 3 on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saburtalo II a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Lokomotivi Tbilisi 14%, so Saburtalo II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Saburtalo II and 0.5 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saburtalo II are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi.

Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Liga 3 Predictions