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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gonio Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 15:00

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Gonio

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-116.6%0-211.4%0-35.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-09.0%1-112.3%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.3%2-14.6%2-23.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 37.0% 2.70 -19.2%

Draw 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +0.7%

Away win 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Over 3.5 20.6% 30.3% 3.30 -19.2%

BTTS 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.6%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotivi Tbilisi0.7

Gonio1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIVI TBILISI · PPG 1.38

GONIO · PPG 1.88

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (H) 25.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.2%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.7%

Gonio (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotivi Tbilisi face Gonio in Georgia - Liga 3 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotivi Tbilisi a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Gonio 46%, so Gonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.4 for Gonio (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotivi Tbilisi are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.88 for Gonio. This match finished 4-0.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gonio Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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