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Manly Utd U20 vs NWS Spirit U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Quarter-finals ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 09:00

Manly Utd U20

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NWS Spirit U20

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.6%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.0%1-18.1%1-25.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.2%3-17.1%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.9%4+-24.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 24.0% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd U202.3

NWS Spirit U201.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD U20 · PPG 2.20

NWS SPIRIT U20 · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd U20 (H) 54.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NWS Spirit U20 (A) 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd U20 face NWS Spirit U20 in Australia - Npl Nsw U20 on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd U20 a 54% chance, the draw 22% and NWS Spirit U20 24%, so Manly Utd U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Manly Utd U20 and 1.4 for NWS Spirit U20 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd U20 are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.53 for NWS Spirit U20. This match finished 3-0.

Manly Utd U20 vs NWS Spirit U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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