Today / Australia - Npl Nsw U20 / St George Saints U20 vs Blacktown City U20

St George Saints U20 vs Blacktown City U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 06:30

St George Saints U20

PPG 0.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Blacktown City U20

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.8%0-23.2%0-32.4%0-4+2.2%1 1-02.7%1-16.0%1-26.8%1-35.0%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.1%3 3-02.0%3-14.6%3-25.1%3-33.8%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-14.0%4+-24.5%4+-33.3%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 27.0% 3.70 +39.1%

Draw 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Away win 41.3% 58.8% 1.70 -29.8%

Over 2.5 71.8% 78.1% 1.28 -8.1%

Over 3.5 51.6% 65.8% 1.52 -21.6%

BTTS 69.1% 80.0% 1.25 -13.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 53.5% 1.87 +11.5%

Away O1.5 65.4% 71.4% 1.40 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.1%

A 41% / xG 2.1-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.0%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George Saints U202.1

Blacktown City U202.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE SAINTS U20 · PPG 0.79

BLACKTOWN CITY U20 · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St George Saints U20 (H) 37.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +39.1%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

Blacktown City U20 (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George Saints U20 face Blacktown City U20 in Australia - Npl Nsw U20 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George Saints U20 a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Blacktown City U20 41%, so Blacktown City U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for St George Saints U20 and 2.2 for Blacktown City U20 (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George Saints U20 are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.21 for Blacktown City U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 1-3.

St George Saints U20 vs Blacktown City U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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