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Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

Hamrun Spartans

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Floriana

PPG 2.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-112.0%0-27.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.3%2-17.4%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 46.5% 2.15 -33.6%

Draw 27.0% 34.5% 2.90 -13.0%

Away win 42.2% 30.3% 3.30 +39.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 24.7% 4.05 +2.2%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 42.0% 2.38 -26.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 29.9% 3.34 +10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamrun Spartans1.1

Floriana1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMRUN SPARTANS · PPG 1.62

FLORIANA · PPG 2.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hamrun Spartans (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -33.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.0%

Floriana (A) 42.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamrun Spartans face Floriana in Malta - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamrun Spartans a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Floriana 42%, so Floriana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hamrun Spartans and 1.2 for Floriana (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamrun Spartans are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.28 for Floriana. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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