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Marsaxlokk vs Hibernians Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:00

Marsaxlokk

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hibernians

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.9%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.1%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.8%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 45.5% 2.20 -3.4%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 28.5% 33.9% 2.95 -9.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.8% 1.93 -3.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

BTTS 51.8% 58.8% 1.70 -11.9%

Home O1.5 41.8% 46.5% 2.15 -10.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 37.7% 2.65 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.8%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0✓ 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marsaxlokk1.5

Hibernians1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MARSAXLOKK · PPG 1.86

HIBERNIANS · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Marsaxlokk (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Hibernians (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marsaxlokk face Hibernians in Malta - Premier League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marsaxlokk a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Hibernians 28%, so Marsaxlokk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Marsaxlokk and 1.1 for Hibernians (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marsaxlokk are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.28 for Hibernians. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Marsaxlokk vs Hibernians Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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