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Floriana vs Sliema Wanderers Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:30

Floriana

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sliema Wanderers

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.5%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.2%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.9%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 52.4% 1.91 +11.2%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 16.5% 25.6% 3.90 -21.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Over 3.5 28.3% 23.8% 4.20 +11.3%

BTTS 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 46.5% 2.15 +18.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 27.4% 3.65 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.9%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floriana1.9

Sliema Wanderers0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORIANA · PPG 1.79

SLIEMA WANDERERS · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Floriana (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +11.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Sliema Wanderers (A) 16.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floriana face Sliema Wanderers in Malta - Premier League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floriana a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Sliema Wanderers 17%, so Floriana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Floriana and 0.7 for Sliema Wanderers (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floriana are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.42 for Sliema Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Floriana vs Sliema Wanderers Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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