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Hibernians vs Zabbar St. Patrick Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:30

Hibernians

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zabbar St. Patrick

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.7%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.6%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.1%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Away win 23.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.5% 3.08 -2.4%

BTTS 54.3% 58.1% 1.72 -6.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% 49.5% 2.02 +13.7%

Away O1.5 32.9% 34.6% 2.89 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernians1.9

Zabbar St. Patrick1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIANS · PPG 1.61

ZABBAR ST. PATRICK · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hibernians (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Zabbar St. Patrick (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernians face Zabbar St. Patrick in Malta - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernians a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Zabbar St. Patrick 24%, so Hibernians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hibernians and 1.1 for Zabbar St. Patrick (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernians are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.95 for Zabbar St. Patrick. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Hibernians vs Zabbar St. Patrick Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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