Today / Malta - Premier League / Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta

Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:30

Hamrun Spartans

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mosta

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.2%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.9%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-16.6%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-15.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 85.5% 1.17 -25.1%

Draw 20.8% 18.2% 5.50 +8.6%

Away win 15.2% 6.7% 15.00 +76.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Over 3.5 33.0% 42.6% 2.35 -22.4%

BTTS 49.6% 45.5% 2.20 +9.1%

Home O1.5 59.6% 78.1% 1.28 -23.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 16.7% 6.00 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamrun Spartans2.1

Mosta0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMRUN SPARTANS · PPG 1.94

MOSTA · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hamrun Spartans (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -25.1%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +8.6%

Mosta (A) 15.2%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +76.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamrun Spartans face Mosta in Malta - Premier League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamrun Spartans a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Mosta 15%, so Hamrun Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hamrun Spartans and 0.7 for Mosta (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamrun Spartans are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Mosta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +74.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta Prediction— Malta - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malta - Premier League Predictions