Today / Egypt - Second League / El Mansura vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

El Mansura vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Prediction— Egypt - Second League

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 13:30

El Mansura logo
El Mansura
PPG 1.33 · HOME
LAST 5
WL ···
2 – 1
FULL TIME
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla logo
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
PPG 0.91 · AWAY
LAST 5
LD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-111.3%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.8%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 45.0% 36.4% 2.75 +23.8%
Draw 27.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.3%
Away win 27.2% 34.7% 2.88 -13.0%
Over 2.5 42.7% 31.3% 3.20 +36.6%
Over 3.5 20.6% 14.4% 6.95 +25.9%
BTTS 47.6% 41.7% 2.40 +14.2%
Home O1.5 32.0% 26.7% 3.75 +20.0%
Away O1.5 22.8% 25.6% 3.90 -6.7%

League track record

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%
O2.5 71%
BTTS 86%
Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-1
xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%
#2 1–1 13.2%
#3 0–0 13.0%
#4 0–1 11.3%
#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Mansura1.2
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EL MANSURA · PPG 1.33

BALADIYYAT AL MEHALLA · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected
65%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Mansura (H) 45.0%
ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +23.8%
Draw 27.8%
ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.3%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (A) 27.2%
ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Mansura face Baladiyyat Al Mehalla in Egypt - Second League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Mansura a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 27%, so El Mansura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for El Mansura and 0.9 for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Mansura are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.91 for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.6%. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org