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Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 01:30

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.8%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-110.6%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 59.5% 1.68 -10.0%

Draw 24.1% 25.3% 3.95 -2.9%

Away win 22.3% 25.3% 3.95 -7.1%

Over 2.5 52.7% 67.6% 1.48 -22.0%

Over 3.5 30.3% 45.5% 2.20 -33.3%

BTTS 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%

Home O1.5 50.7% 65.4% 1.53 -22.4%

Away O1.5 21.1% 40.0% 2.50 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0✓ 13.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero1.8

Gualberto Villarroel SJ0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.14

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -10.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.9%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Gualberto Villarroel SJ in Bolivia - Primera División on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Gualberto Villarroel SJ 22%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Independiente Petrolero and 0.8 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.50 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ. This match finished 1-0.

Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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