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Matagalpa vs Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 01:00

Matagalpa

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Managua

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-18.4%0-210.2%0-38.4%0-4+9.2%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.5%1-37.8%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.5%2-13.6%2-24.4%2-33.6%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.4%3-31.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 20.0% 5.00 -20.7%

Draw 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Away win 66.1% 63.7% 1.57 +3.8%

Over 2.5 59.5% 58.8% 1.70 +1.1%

Over 3.5 38.6% 36.4% 2.75 +6.2%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.9% 3.35 +1.2%

Away O1.5 64.9% 62.5% 1.60 +3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 66% / xG 0.9-2.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 0–3✓ 8.4%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Matagalpa0.9

Managua2.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MATAGALPA · PPG 0.93

MANAGUA · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.52 for Away, form 0.93 vs 1.80

Win probability 1X2

Matagalpa (H) 13.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -20.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Managua (A) 66.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Matagalpa face Managua in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Matagalpa a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Managua 66%, so Managua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Matagalpa and 2.5 for Managua (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Matagalpa are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.80 for Managua. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Matagalpa vs Managua Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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