Today / Nicaragua - Primera Division / Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa

Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 00:00

Walter Ferretti

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Matagalpa

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.9%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.5%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 48.8% 2.05 -4.5%

Draw 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -7.8%

Away win 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Over 2.5 52.4% 54.6% 1.83 -4.1%

Over 3.5 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 37.7% 2.65 -3.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walter Ferretti1.7

Matagalpa1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WALTER FERRETTI · PPG 1.29

MATAGALPA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Walter Ferretti (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -4.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.8%

Matagalpa (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walter Ferretti face Matagalpa in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walter Ferretti a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Matagalpa 28%, so Walter Ferretti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Walter Ferretti and 1.1 for Matagalpa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walter Ferretti are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.13 for Matagalpa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Nicaragua - Primera Division Predictions