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Rancho Santana vs Walter Ferretti Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Rancho Santana

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Walter Ferretti

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.9%0-25.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.8%1-111.5%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.3%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.7%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 32.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 44.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rancho Santana1.4

Walter Ferretti1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RANCHO SANTANA · PPG 0.83

WALTER FERRETTI · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rancho Santana (H) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Walter Ferretti (A) 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rancho Santana face Walter Ferretti in Nicaragua - Primera Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rancho Santana a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Walter Ferretti 32%, so Rancho Santana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rancho Santana and 1.5 for Walter Ferretti (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rancho Santana are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.70 for Walter Ferretti.

Rancho Santana vs Walter Ferretti Prediction— Nicaragua - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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