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Arna-Bjørnar W vs Start W Prediction— Norway - 1. Division Women

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Arna-Bjørnar W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Start W

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.5%0-24.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.1%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 33.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arna-Bjørnar W1.6

Start W1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARNA-BJØRNAR W · PPG 2.17

START W · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arna-Bjørnar W (H) 43.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Start W (A) 33.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arna-Bjørnar W face Start W in Norway - 1. Division Women on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arna-Bjørnar W a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Start W 34%, so Arna-Bjørnar W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Arna-Bjørnar W and 1.5 for Start W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arna-Bjørnar W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.67 for Start W.

Arna-Bjørnar W vs Start W Prediction— Norway - 1. Division Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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