Today / Brazil - Mineiro - 2 / Democrata SL vs Villa Nova

Democrata SL vs Villa Nova Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Finals ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:00

Democrata SL

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa Nova

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.2%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-110.1%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 54.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.1% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Democrata SL1.9

Villa Nova0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEMOCRATA SL · PPG 2.57

VILLA NOVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Democrata SL (H) 55.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Nova (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Democrata SL face Villa Nova in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Democrata SL a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Villa Nova 22%, so Democrata SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Democrata SL and 0.8 for Villa Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Democrata SL are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Villa Nova.

Democrata SL vs Villa Nova Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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