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Uberaba vs Mamoré Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Uberaba

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mamoré

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-17.7%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.4%1-111.3%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.2%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-14.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 47.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.4%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uberaba1.5

Mamoré0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UBERABA · PPG 2.60

MAMORÉ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Uberaba (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mamoré (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Uberaba face Mamoré in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uberaba a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Mamoré 20%, so Uberaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Uberaba and 0.6 for Mamoré (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uberaba are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Mamoré.

Uberaba vs Mamoré Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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