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Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Valeriodoce

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa Nova

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-110.4%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.8%2-16.2%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.3%3-12.3%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% — — —

Draw 31.3% — — —

Away win 19.9% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 17.5% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 21.6%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valeriodoce1.1

Villa Nova0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERIODOCE · PPG 1.80

VILLA NOVA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Valeriodoce (H) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Nova (A) 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valeriodoce face Villa Nova in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valeriodoce a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Villa Nova 20%, so Valeriodoce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Valeriodoce and 0.5 for Villa Nova (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valeriodoce are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for Villa Nova.

Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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