Today / Brazil - Mineiro - 2 / Villa Nova vs Democrata SL

Villa Nova vs Democrata SL Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Finals ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 22:30

Villa Nova

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Democrata SL

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.3%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.5%1-110.7%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.6%3-15.1%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 32.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.9% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Nova1.7

Democrata SL1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA NOVA · PPG 2.14

DEMOCRATA SL · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villa Nova (H) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Democrata SL (A) 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Nova face Democrata SL in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Nova a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Democrata SL 33%, so Villa Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Villa Nova and 1.4 for Democrata SL (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Nova are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Democrata SL.

Villa Nova vs Democrata SL Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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