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Democrata SL vs CAP Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 19:00

Democrata SL

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

CAP

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.5%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-19.3%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 55.9% — — —

Over 3.5 34.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Democrata SL2.1

CAP0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEMOCRATA SL · PPG 2.40

CAP · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Democrata SL (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CAP (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Democrata SL face CAP in Brazil - Mineiro - 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Democrata SL a 57% chance, the draw 23% and CAP 20%, so Democrata SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Democrata SL and 0.8 for CAP (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Democrata SL are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.00 for CAP.

Democrata SL vs CAP Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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