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Ózd Sajóvölgye vs Tarpa Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Northeast · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

Ózd Sajóvölgye

PPG 1.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tarpa

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-110.8%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 50.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ózd Sajóvölgye1.8

Tarpa1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ÓZD SAJÓVÖLGYE · PPG 1.23

TARPA · PPG 1.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ózd Sajóvölgye (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tarpa (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ózd Sajóvölgye face Tarpa in Hungary - NB III - Northeast on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ózd Sajóvölgye a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Tarpa 23%, so Ózd Sajóvölgye are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ózd Sajóvölgye and 1.1 for Tarpa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ózd Sajóvölgye are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.05 for Tarpa.

Ózd Sajóvölgye vs Tarpa Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Match Preview & Prediction

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