Today / Hungary - NB III - Northeast / Tarpa vs Eger

Tarpa vs Eger Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Northeast · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Tarpa

PPG 2.12 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Eger

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.4%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.3%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.3%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 52.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 27.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tarpa1.9

Eger0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TARPA · PPG 2.12

EGER · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tarpa (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eger (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tarpa face Eger in Hungary - NB III - Northeast on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tarpa a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Eger 21%, so Tarpa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tarpa and 0.9 for Eger (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tarpa are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.53 for Eger. This match finished 1-2.

Tarpa vs Eger Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB III - Northeast Predictions