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Varketili vs Kolkheti Khobi Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 17:00

Varketili

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kolkheti Khobi

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +3.18 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-10.7%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.4%1-12.8%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.4%2-15.4%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-16.9%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-027.8%4+-118.0%4+-25.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.7% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 7.6% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.2% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob53.1%

H 77% / xG 3.8-0.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.7%

#2 4–0 10.2%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 5–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varketili3.8

Kolkheti Khobi0.6

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VARKETILI · PPG 2.50

KOLKHETI KHOBI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.18 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Varketili (H) 76.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kolkheti Khobi (A) 7.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varketili face Kolkheti Khobi in Georgia - Liga 3 on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varketili a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Kolkheti Khobi 8%, so Varketili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Varketili and 0.6 for Kolkheti Khobi (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varketili are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Kolkheti Khobi.

Varketili vs Kolkheti Khobi Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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