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Irao vs Gardabani Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 13:00

Irao

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gardabani

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +2.04 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.3%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.1%1-16.2%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-17.6%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.8%4+-110.0%4+-23.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 15.2% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 3–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Irao2.7

Gardabani0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IRAO · PPG 1.88

GARDABANI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.04 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Irao (H) 68.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gardabani (A) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Irao face Gardabani in Georgia - Liga 3 on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Irao a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Gardabani 15%, so Irao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Irao and 0.7 for Gardabani (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Irao are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.75 for Gardabani.

Irao vs Gardabani Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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