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Merani Tbilisi vs Guria Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 13:00

Merani Tbilisi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guria

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.5%0-29.2%0-34.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.4%1-111.9%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.8%2-16.1%2-24.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 46.5% — — —

Over 2.5 53.3% — — —

Over 3.5 31.2% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.3%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merani Tbilisi1.0

Guria1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MERANI TBILISI · PPG 1.50

GURIA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Merani Tbilisi (H) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guria (A) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Merani Tbilisi face Guria in Georgia - Liga 3 on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merani Tbilisi a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Guria 47%, so Guria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Merani Tbilisi and 1.6 for Guria (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merani Tbilisi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Guria.

Merani Tbilisi vs Guria Prediction— Georgia - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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