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Trabzonspor vs Basaksehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:00

Trabzonspor

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Basaksehir

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.6%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.6%1-111.3%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 52.6% 1.90 -5.6%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.4%

Away win 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Over 2.5 54.9% 63.7% 1.57 -13.8%

Over 3.5 32.5% 41.7% 2.40 -22.0%

BTTS 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.5%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trabzonspor1.7

Basaksehir1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TRABZONSPOR · PPG 2.21

BASAKSEHIR · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.21) > Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Trabzonspor (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.4%

Basaksehir (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trabzonspor face Basaksehir in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trabzonspor a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Basaksehir 26%, so Trabzonspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Trabzonspor and 1.2 for Basaksehir (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trabzonspor are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.64 for Basaksehir. This match finished 1-1.

Trabzonspor vs Basaksehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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