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Zlín II vs Polanka nad Odrou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 08:30

Zlín II

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Polanka nad Odrou

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.9%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.5%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.3%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 74.1% 1.35 -27.2%

Draw 24.8% 23.8% 4.20 +2.5%

Away win 21.4% 14.3% 7.00 +29.9%

Over 2.5 51.1% 66.7% 1.50 -23.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% 44.1% 2.27 -19.6%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 48.2% 71.9% 1.39 -33.0%

Away O1.5 23.9% 25.8% 3.88 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1✓ 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zlín II1.7

Polanka nad Odrou0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZLÍN II · PPG 1.75

POLANKA NAD ODROU · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zlín II (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -27.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.5%

Polanka nad Odrou (A) 21.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zlín II face Polanka nad Odrou in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zlín II a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Polanka nad Odrou 21%, so Zlín II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Zlín II and 0.9 for Polanka nad Odrou (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zlín II are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.36 for Polanka nad Odrou. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Zlín II vs Polanka nad Odrou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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