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Unie Hlubina vs Zbrojovka Brno II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:30

Unie Hlubina

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zbrojovka Brno II

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.4%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.4%1-110.3%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.7%3-14.4%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 42.0% 2.38 -3.1%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 35.0% 42.0% 2.38 -16.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 62.5% 1.60 +1.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 41.3% 2.42 -2.7%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 49.8% 2.01 -0.7%

Away O1.5 48.0% 50.3% 1.99 -4.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unie Hlubina1.6

Zbrojovka Brno II1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIE HLUBINA · PPG 1.25

ZBROJOVKA BRNO II · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Unie Hlubina (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -3.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Zbrojovka Brno II (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unie Hlubina face Zbrojovka Brno II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unie Hlubina a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Zbrojovka Brno II 35%, so Unie Hlubina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Unie Hlubina and 1.6 for Zbrojovka Brno II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unie Hlubina are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.44 for Zbrojovka Brno II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Unie Hlubina vs Zbrojovka Brno II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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