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Sigma Olomouc II vs Slovácko II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 08:15

Sigma Olomouc II

PPG 1.64 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Slovácko II

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.6%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.2%1-18.3%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.4%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-17.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 73.5% 1.36 -27.0%

Draw 22.3% 22.7% 4.40 -1.1%

Away win 24.0% 16.7% 6.00 +26.4%

Over 2.5 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Over 3.5 39.5% 46.5% 2.15 -15.1%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 62.4% 72.5% 1.38 -13.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 28.6% 3.50 +23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sigma Olomouc II2.3

Slovácko II1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SIGMA OLOMOUC II · PPG 1.64

SLOVÁCKO II · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sigma Olomouc II (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -27.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.1%

Slovácko II (A) 24.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sigma Olomouc II face Slovácko II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sigma Olomouc II a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Slovácko II 24%, so Sigma Olomouc II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sigma Olomouc II and 1.2 for Slovácko II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sigma Olomouc II are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.63 for Slovácko II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Sigma Olomouc II vs Slovácko II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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