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Blansko vs Hodonín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:30

Blansko

PPG 1.17 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hodonín

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.2%0-25.1%0-33.3%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.4%1-18.7%1-28.5%1-35.6%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.1%3-14.0%3-24.0%3-32.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.5%4+-22.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 35.7% 2.80 -0.0%

Draw 22.0% 28.2% 3.55 -13.1%

Away win 42.3% 47.6% 2.10 -11.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 66.7% 1.50 +0.8%

Over 3.5 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

BTTS 64.3% 69.4% 1.44 -7.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 46.1% 2.17 +5.9%

Away O1.5 54.7% 55.2% 1.81 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.3%

A 42% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blansko1.7

Hodonín2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BLANSKO · PPG 1.17

HODONÍN · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Blansko (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.1%

Hodonín (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blansko face Hodonín in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blansko a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Hodonín 42%, so Hodonín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Blansko and 2.0 for Hodonín (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blansko are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.86 for Hodonín. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Blansko vs Hodonín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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