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Samsunspor vs Besiktas Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Samsunspor

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Besiktas

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.3%0-28.5%0-34.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.1%1-111.6%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.0%2-16.5%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.0%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -13.0%

Away win 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

Over 2.5 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Over 3.5 30.1% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.5%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samsunspor1.1

Besiktas1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.36

BESIKTAS · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.36) vs Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Samsunspor (H) 26.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.0%

Besiktas (A) 49.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samsunspor face Besiktas in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samsunspor a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Besiktas 49%, so Besiktas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Samsunspor and 1.6 for Besiktas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samsunspor are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.79 for Besiktas. This match finished 2-1.

Samsunspor vs Besiktas Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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