Samsunspor vs Besiktas Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 30 Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu· Samsun Sunday, April 19, 2026 14:00

Samsunspor PPG 1.36

2-1 MISS

Besiktas PPG 1.79

Away· -1.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Samsunspor face Besiktas in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samsunspor a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Besiktas 49%, so Besiktas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Samsunspor and 1.6 for Besiktas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samsunspor are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.79 for Besiktas. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 26.1%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -10.0%

Draw 24.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -13.0%

Away 49.4%

Odds: 2.00 EV: -1.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.3% Odds: 1.70 -11.1%

Over 3.5 30.1% Odds: 2.80 -15.7%

BTTS 54.5% Odds: 1.60 -12.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Samsunspor

1.13

Besiktas

1.64

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.36) vs Away GOOD (1.79)