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Platense Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Platense Res.

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estudiantes La Plata Res

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-114.6%0-27.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.0%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.5%2-16.2%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 29.4% 3.40 +11.2%

Draw 29.1% 35.7% 2.80 -11.1%

Away win 38.2% 47.6% 2.10 -19.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.0% 2.38 +4.7%

Over 3.5 22.0% 20.4% 4.90 +4.7%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 25.8% 3.88 +24.6%

Away O1.5 27.7% 39.8% 2.51 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.6%

#4 1–0 14.0%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Platense Res.0.9

Estudiantes La Plata Res1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PLATENSE RES. · PPG 1.70

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Platense Res. (H) 32.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +11.2%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.1%

Estudiantes La Plata Res (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Platense Res. face Estudiantes La Plata Res in Argentina - Reserve League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Platense Res. a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Estudiantes La Plata Res 38%, so Estudiantes La Plata Res are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Platense Res. and 1.0 for Estudiantes La Plata Res (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Platense Res. are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.33 for Estudiantes La Plata Res. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.6%.

Platense Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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