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MTK Budapest vs Puskas Academy Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:30

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puskas Academy

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.9%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.5%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.6%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 37.7% 2.65 +29.3%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 26.7% 42.0% 2.38 -21.9%

Over 2.5 57.7% 60.6% 1.65 -4.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MTK Budapest1.8

Puskas Academy1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.86

PUSKAS ACADEMY · PPG 1.92

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

MTK Budapest (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +29.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Puskas Academy (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

MTK Budapest face Puskas Academy in Hungary - NB I on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MTK Budapest a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Puskas Academy 27%, so MTK Budapest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for MTK Budapest and 1.3 for Puskas Academy (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MTK Budapest are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.92 for Puskas Academy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%.

MTK Budapest vs Puskas Academy Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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