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DEAC vs Tarpa Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Northeast · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 15:30

DEAC

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tarpa

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.4%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-111.1%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.6%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 51.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DEAC1.7

Tarpa0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEAC · PPG 1.91

TARPA · PPG 1.26

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

DEAC (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tarpa (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DEAC face Tarpa in Hungary - NB III - Northeast on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DEAC a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Tarpa 21%, so DEAC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for DEAC and 0.8 for Tarpa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DEAC are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.26 for Tarpa.

DEAC vs Tarpa Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Match Preview & Prediction

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