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Defensores de Vilelas vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 18:30

Defensores de Vilelas

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento Resistencia

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.8%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.1%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.8%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-19.3%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% — — —

Draw 17.6% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.1%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores de Vilelas2.6

Sarmiento Resistencia0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE VILELAS · PPG 1.62

SARMIENTO RESISTENCIA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Defensores de Vilelas (H) 67.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sarmiento Resistencia (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores de Vilelas face Sarmiento Resistencia in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Vilelas a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Sarmiento Resistencia 15%, so Defensores de Vilelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Defensores de Vilelas and 0.8 for Sarmiento Resistencia (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Vilelas are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.38 for Sarmiento Resistencia.

Defensores de Vilelas vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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