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Umeå W vs Göteborg W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Umeå W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Göteborg W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.0%0-26.7%0-34.9%0-4+4.6%1 1-03.8%1-18.4%1-29.3%1-36.8%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.6%2-15.8%2-26.4%2-34.8%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.7%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 53.0% — — —

Over 2.5 66.7% — — —

Over 3.5 44.2% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 42.2% — — —

Away O1.5 66.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.5%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå W1.4

Göteborg W2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ W · PPG 1.40

GÖTEBORG W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Umeå W (H) 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Göteborg W (A) 53.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå W face Göteborg W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå W a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Göteborg W 53%, so Göteborg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Umeå W and 2.2 for Göteborg W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Göteborg W.

Umeå W vs Göteborg W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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