Today / Slovakia - 2. liga / Slavia TU K. vs Petrzalka

Slavia TU K. vs Petrzalka Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 09:00

Slavia TU K.

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Petrzalka

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.4%0-28.0%0-35.1%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 38.5% 2.60 -37.3%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -20.8%

Away win 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Over 2.5 60.4% 66.7% 1.50 -9.4%

Over 3.5 38.0% — — —

BTTS 59.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.8%

A 54% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1 8.4%

#4 0–2 8.0%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia TU K.1.2

Petrzalka1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA TU K. · PPG 1.42

PETRZALKA · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.42) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Slavia TU K. (H) 24.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -37.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -20.8%

Petrzalka (A) 53.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia TU K. face Petrzalka in Slovakia - 2. liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia TU K. a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Petrzalka 54%, so Petrzalka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Slavia TU K. and 1.9 for Petrzalka (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia TU K. are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.08 for Petrzalka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Slavia TU K. vs Petrzalka Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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