Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Jeonnam vs Busan IPark

Jeonnam vs Busan IPark Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 10:30

Jeonnam logo
Jeonnam
PPG 0.33 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Busan IPark logo
Busan IPark
PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-19.2%0-29.7%0-36.8%0-4+5.8%1 1-04.5%1-19.4%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.3%2-14.8%2-25.1%2-33.6%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 21.6% 30.3% 3.30 -17.2%
Draw 21.5% 30.3% 3.30 -17.4%
Away win 56.9% 48.8% 2.05 +16.6%
Over 2.5 63.9% 55.6% 1.80 +15.0%
Over 3.5 39.8% 33.9% 2.95 +17.4%
BTTS 58.8% 61.7% 1.62 -4.7%
Home O1.5 35.2% 37.0% 2.70 -5.0%
Away O1.5 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.8%

A 57% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%
#2 1–2 9.9%
#3 0–2 9.7%
#4 0–1 9.2%
#5 1–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonnam1.0
Busan IPark2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONNAM · PPG 0.33

BUSAN IPARK · PPG 2.14

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
95%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonnam (H) 21.6%
ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.2%
Draw 21.5%
ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.4%
Busan IPark (A) 56.9%
ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonnam face Busan IPark in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonnam a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Busan IPark 57%, so Busan IPark are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jeonnam and 2.1 for Busan IPark (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonnam are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 2.14 for Busan IPark. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.9%.

PredictVantage

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