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Gimpo vs Asan Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 10:30

Gimpo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Asan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 54.6% 1.83 -17.5%

Draw 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

Away win 28.1% 24.4% 4.10 +9.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.8% 1.93 -2.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 29.9% 3.35 -1.1%

BTTS 55.6% 55.6% 1.80 +0.1%

Home O1.5 42.8% 54.1% 1.85 -20.8%

Away O1.5 37.9% 27.4% 3.65 +38.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo1.4

Asan1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO · PPG 1.00

ASAN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -17.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.1%

Asan (A) 28.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo face Asan in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Asan 28%, so Gimpo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimpo and 1.2 for Asan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Asan. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +38.3%.

Gimpo vs Asan Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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