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Gyeongnam vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 10:30

Gyeongnam

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cheonan City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+11.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.3%0-27.1%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.6%1-111.8%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-17.5%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 39.2% 2.55 -12.0%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 41.2% 37.7% 2.65 +9.2%

Over 2.5 60.9% 46.5% 2.15 +30.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 25.3% 3.95 +46.6%

BTTS 61.9% 55.6% 1.80 +11.4%

Home O1.5 42.8% 37.7% 2.65 +13.4%

Away O1.5 49.8% 36.4% 2.75 +37.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.9%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongnam1.3

Cheonan City1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGNAM · PPG 1.38

CHEONAN CITY · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongnam (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Cheonan City (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongnam face Cheonan City in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongnam a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Cheonan City 41%, so Cheonan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gyeongnam and 1.5 for Cheonan City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongnam are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.33 for Cheonan City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.6%.

Gyeongnam vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 2 Predictions