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Seoul vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 10:30

Seoul

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.7%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.0%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -8.8%

Away win 27.8% 25.0% 4.00 +6.7%

Over 2.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.5%

BTTS 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Home O1.5 44.2% 50.0% 2.00 -11.6%

Away O1.5 31.0% 30.3% 3.30 +2.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul1.6

Incheon Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL · PPG 1.67

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Seoul (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -10.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.8%

Incheon Utd (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul face Incheon Utd in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Incheon Utd 28%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Seoul and 1.0 for Incheon Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.71 for Incheon Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Seoul vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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