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Gwangju vs Ulsan Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulsan

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-110.5%0-212.6%0-310.1%0-4+10.7%1 1-03.2%1-17.7%1-29.2%1-37.3%1-4+7.8%2 2-01.2%2-12.8%2-23.3%2-32.7%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 14.3% 7.00 -6.7%

Draw 20.6% 24.4% 4.10 -9.3%

Away win 66.7% 67.6% 1.48 -1.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 51.3% 1.95 +18.8%

Over 3.5 37.1% 29.0% 3.45 +28.0%

BTTS 52.8% 48.8% 2.05 +8.2%

Home O1.5 33.7% 20.0% 5.00 +68.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 60.6% 1.65 +14.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob52.8%

A 67% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.6%

#2 0–3 10.1%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju0.7

Ulsan2.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU · PPG 0.71

ULSAN · PPG 1.86

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju (H) 12.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -6.7%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.3%

Ulsan (A) 66.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju face Ulsan in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Ulsan 67%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gwangju and 2.4 for Ulsan (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.86 for Ulsan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +68.5%.

Gwangju vs Ulsan Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions